This article Citation:

Yogita Gharde. 2015. Forecasting of herbicide consumption using autoregressive integrated moving average model . Indian Journal of Weed Science : 47( 4) 408- 410.







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Volume Issue Publication year Page No Type of article
47 4 2015 408-410 Full length articles
Forecasting of herbicide consumption using autoregressive integrated moving average model

Yogita Gharde

DOI:

Email: yogitagharde@gmail.com
Address: ICAR-Directorate of Weed Research, Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh 482 004

Keywords:

ARIMA, Forecasting, Herbicide consumption, Modelling, Time series



Abstract:

A study was conducted on modelling and forecasting the time series data of total herbicide consumption in India. Among many time series methodology, Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used for modelling and forecasting purposes using data from 1990 to 2010. Before the modelling, stationarity of the data was checked using Augmented Dicky Fuller test. Best model was chosen using two criterion viz. Akaike information criterion and Schwarz’s Bayesian criterion. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model was found to the best among many models from ARIMA family. Forecasting was done using the best model and prediction for total herbicide consumption in India was made for next three year (2011, 2012, 2013) as 6624, 6581 and 6562 tonnes respectively.





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